Showing posts with label Economics and Business. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economics and Business. Show all posts

Saturday, 11 July 2009

Indofood consolidates amid global crisis

Entrepreneur's Story

By: Agustinus Gius Gala

Globe Asia-15 November 2008. After a number of acquisitions during the past 12 months, PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk., the world's largest instant noodle maker, is now entering a consolidation stage but doesn't plan to ignore opportunity if it knocks. In late August, Jakarta-listed Indofood became the talk of punters in the stock market amid rumors that the company planned to acquire a controlling stake in dairy producer PT Indolakto. A month later, Indofood announced it had signed a conditional sale-and-purchase agreement to acquire the company. “After this latest acquisition, we'll be entering a consolidation phase until the global financial condition recovers. We're feeling very full right now,” Indofood vice president director Franciscus Welirang told GlobeAsia late in September.

Indofood will acquire 100% of Singapore-based Drayton Pte. Ltd., which owns 68.57% of shares in Indolakto, one of the major producers of milk products in Indonesia, for $350 million. Indofood, which has paid 15% of the purchase value up front, hopes to be able to complete the transaction in December after securing approval from shareholders and authorities in Jakarta and Singapore.Franciscus says between 30-50% of the acquisition cost will be financed by internal funds, while the remainder will be funded with loans. He declined to provide details. The acquisition of Indolakto followed the purchase of sugar producer PT Laju Perdana Indah this year, and Jakarta-listed plantation company PT Perusahaan Perkebunan London Sumatera Tbk. (Lonsum) late last year.

The acquisition drive is seen by analysts as an effort by Indofood parent the Salim Group to regain some of its businesses lost in the wake of the late 1990s Asian financial crisis. The Salim Group, founded by tycoon Sudono Salim, one of Indonesia's richest men, had to unload some of the jewels in its crown including Bank BCA, Indolakto and plantation firms in the late 1990s to repay debts to the government. But under the leadership of Anthoni Salim, Sudono's son and group crown prince, who is also president of Indofood, the group last year began making new acquisitions both at home and overseas.The move followed a successful business restructuring at a time when strong commodity prices during the past couple of years and the region's relatively good macro-economic condition provided ample cash and a conducive environment for acquisitions.

Consumer driven

With the looming global economic recession and financial crisis, which has dried up liquidity markets and pummeled stock markets around the world, there are concerns that Indofood will be aversely affected. Franciscus plays down such concerns. The company's food business, which produces the popular Indomie-brand instant noodles and other consumer food products such as food seasonings, snacks and nutritional and specialty foods, will continue to deliver strong sales and profitability, he insists. He points out that the country's economy will remain strong, with growth projected at more than 6% both this year and next, driven by consumption.

Growth in demand for food products will be in line with economic growth, he predicts. “Spending will also increase during the general election next year, which bodes well for food companies.” Prices of raw materials have been falling over the past few months and Indofood also expects profit margins to improve as the cost of production declines, while the price of products will be maintained. In the first half of this year, Indofood's net profit more than doubled to Rp827.45 billion ($87.1 million) from Rp367 billion in the same period last year, mostly attributable to the strong sales of its food division. Sales of wheat flour are also expected to remain buoyant as demand for food products will increase during the election campaign.

Franciscus, who is also chairman of the Indonesian Wheat Milling Association (Aptindo), projects demand will grow by around 6.5% next year to 3.5 million metric tons in 2009 from an estimated 3.4 million tons this year. Lower flour prices will also push demand higher. Franciscus acknowledges the company's plantation unit may no longer enjoy the “extraordinary profit” of last year as prices of crude palm oil (CPO) have fallen. Analysts said however that the lower price of CPO will boost the profit margins of Indofood's cooking oil and fat products. The company had been planning to aggressively expand its agribusiness division, but the current unfavorable economic conditions may temporarily put a halt to this ambition. As part of consolidation, the agribusiness division will for the time being focus on planting unused land at its plantation concessions. “We still have a lot of planting to be done in the land we control,” says Franciscus.

Good reputation

Despite current tight liquidity condition, Indofood is optimistic that it will not find much difficulty in raising funds and loans to finance various activities, including the acquisition of Indolakto. “We have a good reputation,” stresses Franciscus. At the first semester of this year, Indofood also had about Rp4.8 trillion in cash reserves. For many business players, the current global economic downturn offers good opportunities to buy cheap assets so, despite the consolidation strategy, Indofood will not turn down opportunity if it comes along. “If there's a good opportunity, we're going to take it,” Franciscus said. Analysts agree that given the ample cash reserves and its strong credit worthiness, Indofood may just be able to do that.The analysts also welcomed Indofood's move to acquire Indolakto, which not only produces milk but also other dairy-based products. Danareksa Securities said in an October 7 note to investors that the acquisition is positive for the company's diversification strategy.

The prospects for the dairy industry are strong. Government data shows that milk consumption in Indonesia is still very low at 7.7 kg per year, the lowest in Asia, even though government campaigns and corporate advertising have been pushing milk consumption higher over the past five years. Indolakto, which has a number of popular dairy brands including Indomilk, Cap Enaak, Tiga Sapi, Orchid Butter and Indoeskrim, is the third largest milk producer in the country with 20% of the market after Nestle (25% market share) and Frisian Flag (22%). The analysts are still waiting for the acquisition details, particularly with regards to the loans Indofood will require. “Strong brands alone are not sufficient,” notes BNI Securities analyst Akhmad Nurchayadi.

Friday, 10 July 2009

Putting a Brake on Lending

Entrepreneur's Story

By: Agustinus Gius Gala

Globe Asia-29 Januari 2009. Putting a brake on lending Bank Central Asia (BCA), the country's second largest bank by assets, will drastically slow lending growth next year due to economic uncertainty. The mood among the country's leading bankers is cautious. Purse strings have been drawn tightly. While the global financial crisis is not expected to have as distressing an effect as the Asian financial crisis of 10 years ago, bankers are not playing down the latest catastrophe, adopting a consolidation strategy in the areas of lending and liquidity to help ensure survival.
“There are just too many factors out there that have forced us to be extra careful,” says Jahja Setiaatmadja, deputy president of Jakarta-listed BCA, the country's largest financial company by market value.
The bank is putting an abrupt brake on lending due to lingering uncertainty in the economy. Jahja says that lending in 2009 is targeted to grow by 15%, much lower than the central bank's target of 22-24%. “We are more conservative,” says the senior banker. Other major banks such as Bank Mandiri, the country's largest in terms of assets, and Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI), the third largest, are also adopting similar strategies.
A senior official at Mandiri was quoted as saying that the bank aimed at lending growth of less than 18%, while BRI projects 15-20% growth. This is in sharp contrast to the aggressive lending growth in 2008. The central bank estimates that lending growth in the year at around 33%. BCA was even more aggressive as lending in the first nine months of the year surged by more than 53% to a whopping Rp105.5 trillion ($9.5 billion), about 44% of which went to the corporate sector including telecommunications, consumer goods, property and plantation companies. The remainder was in the form of consumer and commercial loans and lending to small- and medium-scale enterprises. With full-year 2008 lending expected to reach more than Rp110 trillion, fresh loans this year will reach around Rp16.5 trillion.
Jahja says BCA will prioritize loans to existing customers with good track records.The bank, however, will not shun industries which are currently undergoing a downturn, including palm oil plantations and coal mining. The trick is that BCA has been disbursing loans to a diverse range of industries but focuses on the top players at each industry. “The top players have the experience and capital to survive any downturn. They seldom fail,” says the BCA executive.Jahja explains a strategy of lending money to a booming industry but avoiding it during a down turn is not a good “ethic” for banks as every business has its own cycle. He points out as an example that when the oil price surged from $26 per barrel to around $60, the plastics industry suffered deeply as its cost of raw material soared much faster than the price of the goods produced. “We consistently supported them, and they are now in much better shape.”

Rising NPLs

Jahja, however, acknowledges that given the current global financial meltdown and economic slowdown a rising level of non-performing loans (NPL) is unavoidable. The crisis sent the rupiah plunging to a 10-year low of Rp13,000 to the dollar in November and caused a weakening of consumer purchasing power at home as the stock market collapsed. Despite the difficult conditions, the bank projects its NPL level to “only” increase to between 1-1.2% of total loans from 0.6% at the end of September. “We think such an NPL level is still manageable,” he says. The bank's NPL projection is much lower than the central bank's projection for the industry at about 5% next year, from the estimated average of 3.9% in 2008.
BCA nearly went under when it was hit by a run in 1997 as the Asian financial crisis escalated, prompting the government to take it over from its former owner, the Salim Group. This time around, it has taken measures to deal with the expected rise in NPLs by boosting provisions for bad debts to 350% of the non-performing loan level at the end of September. Such excessive provisioning is raising questions in the market. “We feel that BCA may be too conservative, prompting questions over the real quality of its loan portfolio, especially given the current global economic turmoil,” says Arhya Satyagraha, an analyst at PT Trimegah Securities.
Jahja responds by saying that the policy is necessary given the current global economic uncertainty. “We have said that we're committed to continue supporting our large customers (debtors). That's why we have made preparations that in case one or two companies go under, we have already allocated sufficient provision so that it would not threaten our earnings.”
Going forward, says Jahja, it is important for banks to closely monitor their loan quality as interest rates stay high, the rupiah tumbles and consumer purchasing power declines, all of which could weaken appetite for new bank borrowings and undermine sales at a variety of industries, which in turn could affect their ability to repay debts.

Maintaining liquidity

Jahja explains another important strategy of the bank in coping with the current crisis is to have sufficient liquidity. “One of the reasons for us not to be too expansive in our lending is to maintain liquidity,” he stresses. BCA, now majority owned by the Hartono family, one of Indonesia's richest and owner of the privately held cigarette giant Djarum Group, seems to have no problem in terms of liquidity. It is one of a few large banks in the country which have recently seen third party funds soar, which some analysts say was a result of depositors from smaller banks switching to larger banks in a flight for safety.
BCA saw its third party funds jump to a record of more than Rp200 trillion as of November 22. In addition, the bank has some Rp30 trillion invested in Bank Indonesia SBI promissory notes. Another factor that has become the envy of industry competitors is that BCA has lots of cheap funds, in the form of savings and demand deposits as opposed to more expensive time deposits, thus allowing the bank to be able to enjoy a relatively strong net interest margin of 6.2% (at September 2008) without putting too much interest burden on depositors.
Indeed, BCA managed to “only” raise its lending rate from 11% to 14% at a time when liquidity was tight, as compared to the 18-20% rate charged by other banks. “We're quite comfortable with our spread level,” says Jahja, adding that the bank still has room to cut its lending rate in the future given the current declining trend in the central bank benchmark rate.

Network expansion

Despite the current uncertain conditions, BCA aims to keep expanding its network. Jahja says that the bank will open more than 30 new branches in 2009, adding to the current 819 branches spread across the country. “While we're consolidating in terms of lending, we're expanding in terms of network. There is still a huge potential in Indonesia to collect savings from people and redistribute the funds,” he says. The bank recently acquired small-sized Bank UIB, and plans to convert it into an Islamic shariah banking operation, expected to start operating in September 2009. “There is still huge potential for shariah banking in Indonesia as its market share is still less than 3%,” says Jahja.
While other major banks began shariah operations a few years ago, some analysts said that it is typical for BCA to come late to the game, adding that it could eventually take a major share of the market. They note that the bank got off to a slow start in the provision of ATMs, but now has the largest number in the industry. Nevertheless there are some limits to BCA's ambitions: an earlier plan to acquire another financial institution in 2009 has been put on the shelf while the current economic downturn continues.

Social Capital and Value Creation in Business


Management Thought

Dr. Hargo Utomo, MBA., M.Com
Director of Master of Management Program
Gadjah Mada University

By: Agustinus Gius Gala

Social Capital and Value Creation in BusinessLately, matters pertaining to social capital have earned quite a lot public attention. This attention is no more than an indication of a new awareness of human behavior in relation to the self and the environment.
Essentially, in doing a job, a human being as a social creature with a soul and feelings cannot be entirely replaced by instruments. That's why a business routine devoid of an accompanying soul as its foundation is tantamount to a machine operating mechanically and does not feel the need to recognize the unfavorable effects it may produce.

Following this line of thought, human existence in business life should no longer be viewed as a static resource but as a productive and dynamic resource in controlling organizational behavior.
So the challenge we face is to restore the role of the human being as a social agent and at the same time a stimulator for every change that requires collective action so that a set business performance target can be reached. The initial proposition put forward is that social behavior in business basically can be shaped in accordance with a commonly agreed commitment.
This argument is quite different from an opportunistic view, which always views the elements of a social relationship in business unilaterally. An elaboration of the elements forming social capital will, in its turn, be believed to be able to unravel the complexity of the matter being revealed.
However, the biggest constraint that lies in the effort to optimize the role of social capital in this context is limitation in the codification that is available and can be used to link the parties interested in the control of human behavior.

Can social capital be codified?

Whether we realize it or not, the business community, particularly in Indonesia, has long adopted and appreciated symbolic language in communication and interaction with its community. Nevertheless, symbolic language often cannot be easily understood so that it will very likely lead to a difference in interpretation. If this happens, someone usually will again refer to a written statement that has been made as a commitment. Belief in what has been put in writing usually serves as a basis for decision making. Unfortunately, however, the habit of the community to put down everything that has become its concern is relatively limited in comparison with its use of the audio or verbal media in interaction with its social environment.
This tendency shows that the settlement of a business problem is often quite effective with the adoption of informal measures that do not require a standard procedure.

The implication arising from this limitation in the symbolic codification is the formation of a gap in determining measurable domains and forms of contribution of social capital in business. Indeed, the complexity in measurement may occur because not every element forming social capital can be codified, particularly for performance evaluation purposes. The elements that are within an individual, such as trust, love and charisma, are relatively difficult to transfer to another party without the presence of the individual in question. That's why, in a condition in which a corporation requires a concrete act to be made collectively for a major change, the role of motivators is important to awaken the spirit and at the same time inspire goodwill for this change. Motivators can come from outside the company and generally they are more effective in an empowering movement rather than the motivators from within the company itself.
This may be the case because generally, in terms of its character, the business community in Indonesia, can be easily annoyed if a particular issue is exposed by someone from outside its cultural community.

Theoretically, there will be a need to use external motivators to awaken an awareness of social capital if there is an indication of a lack of confidence or even distrust in a particular business on the part of the public. Business cases related with environmental pollution that have been exposed in the mass media are a simple illustration of this matter.
In fact, on the other hand, certainly a business requires concrete efforts to build a relationship with the broader community. It is a natural phenomenon to see a community hope that the presence of a particular business in their vicinity will help settle local problems and introduce changes for the better and not the other way around. The problem now is whether it is true that a movement to generate social capital must wait until external efforts are available. Is it possible for a multidimensional awareness to be shaped from inside a company itself?
The multidimensional approach as an alternative solution.

A number of published popular scientific studies have from the very beginning given a positive signal about the need on the part of business players to expand their multidimensional view to see the contribution that the reinforcement of social capital will give to the achievement of organizational performance. More specifically, the pattern of studies and discussions made in relation to social capital is geared toward two dimensions, namely: (1) the relational dimension, which prioritizes the significance of efforts to establish interpersonal relations in business and (2) the structural dimension, which emphasizes the significance of understanding the depth or closeness of interpersonal relations in a business (McFadyen and Cannella, Jr., Academy of Management Journal, Vol. 47, 2004).

It is true that monetary values have until recently underlined nearly all activities at the bottom line but businessmen have begun to realize that financial performance alone is not enough to guarantee the survival of a business. Financial engineering is believed to be a necessary condition but not sufficient to make a business capable of survival and maintaining its sustainability in the long run. Moreover, a new awareness arising as a consequence of the empowerment of social capital indicates the need to take into account the measurement of business performance that accommodates the instincts and responsiveness of a human being as a social creature.
Business leaders should be morally responsible to start this. A constructive step to take is to accommodate the need of a natural and proportional return on human investment. The cost and benefit analysis that has until now been used may always be modified to evaluate the contribution of social capital in business.

It may not be time to reassess any indication that spending in a business in relation to human empowerment should be treated as a burden because it indirectly gives a clearly measured return. In fact, a further study of this matter, will show that placing human beings at the center of gravity in a management process assumes a highly strategic significance for the long-term interests of a business.

As an illustration, an improvement in the soft skills among top managers in matters that have hitherto been considered insignificant, for example in terms of dress and communication, will greatly improve self-confidence, particularly in negotiations and approval of business contracts.
In short, efforts to build and develop a business with a value for the community is a long process. An approach that prioritizes individual capabilities should now be geared toward institutionalized efforts that no longer lend prominence to the ego of an individual or a group of individuals.
Empathy and togetherness should be a cohesive element for the rebuilding of a social awareness of a business. Therefore, what is now required is not a focus on how many social relations a business establishes but the quality of a relationship that forms and guides constructive organizational behavior.

~From MMUGM~

Thursday, 9 July 2009

Identify Emerging Market Opportunities

Research And Ideas

Published: July 18, 2005
Authors: Tarun Khanna, Krishna G. Palepu, and Jayant Sinha
By: Agustinus Gius Gala

Executive Summary:

Yes, you understand your company needs to compete in emerging markets. But which country is the best fit for you? A Harvard Business Review excerpt by Tarun Khanna, Krishna G. Palepu, and Jayant Sinha.
As we helped companies think through their globalization strategies, we came up with a simple conceptual device—the five contexts framework—that lets executives map the institutional contexts of any country. Economics 101 tells us that companies buy inputs in the product, labor, and capital markets and sell their outputs in the products (raw materials and finished goods) or services market. When choosing strategies, therefore, executives need to figure out how the product, labor, and capital markets work—and don't work—in their target countries. This will help them understand the differences between home markets and those in developing countries. In addition, each country's social and political milieu—as well as the manner in which it has opened up to the outside world—shapes those markets, and companies must consider those factors, too.

The five contexts framework places a superstructure of key markets on a base of sociopolitical choices. Many multinational corporations look at either the macro factors (the degree of openness and the sociopolitical atmosphere) or some of the market factors, but few pay attention to both. We have developed sets of questions that companies can ask to create a map of each country's context and to gauge the extent to which businesses must adapt their strategies to each one. [...]

Political and Social Systems. Every country's political system affects its product, labor, and capital markets. In socialist societies like China, for instance, workers cannot form independent trade unions in the labor market, which affects wage levels. A country's social environment is also important. In South Africa, for example, the government's support for the transfer of assets to the historically disenfranchised native African community—a laudable social objective—has affected the development of the capital market. Such transfers usually price assets in an arbitrary fashion, which makes it hard for multinationals to figure out the value of South African companies and affects their assessments of potential partners.

"Executives would do well to identify a country's power centers and figure out if there are checks and balances in place."

The thorny relationships between ethnic, regional, and linguistic groups in emerging markets also affects foreign investors. In Malaysia, for instance, foreign companies should enter into joint ventures only after checking if their potential partners belong to the majority Malay community or the economically dominant Chinese community, so as not to conflict with the government's long-standing policy of transferring some assets from Chinese to Malays. This policy arose because of a perception that the race riots of 1969 were caused by the tension between the Chinese haves and the Malay have-nots. Although the rhetoric has changed somewhat in the past few years, the pro-Malay policy remains in place.

Executives would do well to identify a country's power centers, such as its bureaucracy, media, and civil society, and figure out if there are checks and balances in place. Managers must also determine how decentralized the political system is, if the government is subject to oversight, and whether bureaucrats and politicians are independent from one another. Companies should gauge the level of actual trust among the populace as opposed to enforced trust. For instance, if people believe companies won't vanish with their savings, firms may be able to raise money locally sooner rather than later.

Openness. CEOs often talk about the need for economies to be open because they believe it's best to enter countries that welcome direct investment by multinational corporations—although companies can get into countries that don't allow foreign investment by entering into joint ventures or by licensing local partners. Still, they must remember that the concept of "open" can be deceptive. For example, executives believe that China is an open economy because the government welcomes foreign investment but that India is a relatively closed economy because of the lukewarm reception the Indian government gives multinationals. However, India has been open to ideas from the West, and people have always been able to travel freely in and out of the country, whereas for decades, the Chinese government didn't allow its citizens to travel abroad freely, and it still doesn't allow many ideas to cross its borders. Consequently, while it may be true that multinational companies can invest in China more easily than they can in India, managers in India are more inclined to be market oriented and globally aware than managers are in China.

The more open a country's economy, the more likely it is that global intermediaries will be allowed to operate there. Multinationals, therefore, will find it easier to function in markets that are more open because they can use the services of both the global and local intermediaries. However, openness can be a double-edged sword: A government that allows local companies to access the global capital market neutralizes one of foreign companies' key advantages.

"Openness can be a double-edged sword."

The two macro contexts we have just described—political and social systems and openness—shape the market contexts. For instance, in Chile, a military coup in the early 1970s led to the establishment of a right-wing government, and that government's liberal economic policies led to a vibrant capital market in the country. But Chile's labor market remained underdeveloped because the government did not allow trade unions to operate freely. Similarly, openness affects the development of markets. If a country's capital markets are open to foreign investors, financial intermediaries will become more sophisticated. That has happened in India, for example, where capital markets are more open than they are in China. Likewise, in the product market, if multinationals can invest in the retail industry, logistics providers will develop rapidly. This has been the case in China, where providers have taken hold more quickly than they have in India, which has only recently allowed multinationals to invest in retailing.

Product Markets. Developing countries have opened up their markets and grown rapidly during the past decade, but companies still struggle to get reliable information about consumers, especially those with low incomes. Developing a consumer finance business is tough, for example, because the data sources and credit histories that firms draw on in the West don't exist in emerging markets. Market research and advertising are in their infancy in developing countries, and it's difficult to find the deep databases on consumption patterns that allow companies to segment consumers in more-developed markets. There are few government bodies or independent publications, like Consumer Reports in the United States, that provide expert advice on the features and quality of products. Because of a lack of consumer courts and advocacy groups in developing nations, many people feel they are at the mercy of big companies.
Labor Markets. In spite of emerging markets' large populations, multinationals have trouble recruiting managers and other skilled workers because the quality of talent is hard to ascertain. There are relatively few search firms and recruiting agencies in low-income countries. The high-quality firms that do exist focus on top-level searches, so companies must scramble to identify middle-level managers, engineers, or floor supervisors. Engineering colleges, business schools, and training institutions have proliferated, but apart from an elite few, there's no way for companies to tell which schools produce skilled managers. For instance, several Indian companies have sprung up to train people for jobs in the call center business, but no organization rates the quality of the training it provides.

Capital Markets. The capital and financial markets in developing countries are remarkable for their lack of sophistication. Apart from a few stock exchanges and government-appointed regulators, there aren't many reliable intermediaries like credit-rating agencies, investment analysts, merchant bankers, or venture capital firms. Multinationals can't count on raising debt or equity capital locally to finance their operations. Like investors, creditors don't have access to accurate information on companies. Businesses can't easily assess the creditworthiness of other firms or collect receivables after they have extended credit to customers. Corporate governance is also notoriously poor in emerging markets. Transnational companies, therefore, can't trust their partners to adhere to local laws and joint venture agreements. In fact, since crony capitalism thrives in developing countries, multinationals can't assume that the profit motive alone is what's driving local firms.

Several CEOs have asked us why we emphasize the role of institutional intermediaries and ignore industry factors. They argue that industry structure, such as the degree of competition, should also influence companies' strategies. But when Harvard Business School professor Jan Rivkin and one of the authors of this article ranked industries by profitability, they found that the correlation of industry rankings across pairs of countries was close to zero, which means that the attractiveness of an industry varied widely from country to country. So although factors like scale economies, entry barriers, and the ability to differentiate products matter in every industry, the weight of their importance varies from place to place. An attractive industry in your home market may turn out to be unattractive in another country. Companies should analyze industry structures—always a useful exercise—only after they understand a country's institutional context.

About the authors:
Tarun Khanna and Krishna G. Palepu are professors at Harvard Business School.
Jayant Sinha (HBS MBA '92) is a partner at McKinsey & Company in New Delhi.
~From Harvard Business School~
Research And Ideas

Published: December 6, 2006
Author: Tarun Khanna

By: Agustinus Gius Gala

Executive Summary:

Although India and China have increased bilateral trade over the last five years, the amount is far less than what would be expected. Harvard Business School professor Tarun Khanna says India has primarily itself to blame. From The Economic Times. Key concepts include:
  1. China and India recorded $19 billion in bilateral trade in 2005, much less than would be expected of countries similar in size, within geographic proximity, and with shared cultural ties.
  2. Indians' fears about Chinese competition and unease over past border wars result in procedural and other roadblocks to increased trade, at India's disadvantage.

  3. China benefits from the trade more than India, both by selling more and better products to India and by welcoming Indian investment in China.
Everyone points out that China-India bilateral trade, at roughly $19 billion in 2005, is a far cry from the $2 billion in 1999. Indeed, the increase is to be celebrated. Chinese President Hu Jintao's current visit to New Delhi cements the diplomatic and economic bridges created by Premier Wen Jiabao last year during a similar visit.

But $19 billion is hardly anything to write home about, even if one were to discount the fact that much of what India exports to China is low-value-added commodities (notably iron ore). I asked myself what a sensible benchmark would be to qualify as a "sufficient" or even "respectable" volume of bilateral trade. There is a notion in international trade, called the gravity model, which suggests that, ceteris paribus, countries that are larger and more proximate tend to trade more with each other. By the model, China and India should trade extensively with each other. That they don't, at least not yet, is an anomaly.

The U.S.-Mexico example

Consider the U.S.-Mexico bilateral trade as an example, an order of magnitude bigger than China-India bilateral trade. Indeed, Mexico and the U.S. are among the most important trading partners of each other. Of course, there are several ways in which the U.S.-Mexico example is an unfair number to use to benchmark China-India trade. Those countries, even Mexico, are much richer than are China and India, and this means that their trade in dollar terms will be more voluminous.

Notwithstanding some tensions, they also haven't engaged in a multidecade "deep freeze" in relations recently. And there are plenty of Spanish speakers in the U.S. to lubricate the relationship with Mexico, far more than Mandarin speakers in India, or Hindi speakers in China. The Canada-U.S. relationship is similar, as is the relationship between Brazil and Argentina, just to pick a couple of other examples.

Note that China is now among India's most important trading partners, but the importance that India assigns to China has not been reciprocated. India does not yet figure on the ten most important countries to China in terms of trade, recent high profile visits on both sides notwithstanding.

Another benchmark for today's China-India trade is historical. It is well known that the two countries have shared links over the millennia. Indeed, the great-and-good from each country even today start their visits by making the proverbial nods to Buddhism. In 2003, for example, the then prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee visited the Baima Si, White Horse Temple, in China's Henan province, one of the monuments that mark the arrival of Buddhism from India to China in the third century.

It is a mistake to dismiss such cultural links as being too far back in history to matter, since they inform historical memories in the two countries. Scholars suggest that Buddhism and trade were mutually reinforcing millennia ago, and reinvigorated cultural links might well lubricate further commerce. But we remain very far from the historical benchmark of mutual relevance.

Advantage China

I would venture to say that China gets a lot more out of India than India does out of China currently, both by selling more and better things to India and by welcoming Indian investment in China, and India has only herself to blame. The primary, perhaps only significant, thing that India has borrowed from China lately is a good, healthy economic scare. Indians, you will recall, were terrified of Chinese goods coming across the border a few years ago. It turned out that this forced several Indian companies to upgrade their game—the well-known salubrious effects of competition operated—and this is no bad thing in itself.

"India does not yet figure on the ten most important countries to China in terms of trade."

But it also clarified that Indians had nothing to fear from the Chinese. Indian companies hardly withered away in response to the Chinese threat. Nor have major overseas ventures by the Chinese, in Europe and the West, been unambiguously successful. Shenzhen-based TCL Multimedia, among the world's largest TV makers, for instance, made the high profile acquisition of French company Thomson's TV business, only to oversee considerable value destruction in the years since. That is, the mere fact of aggressive expansion should not strike fear.

The Chinese do not generally reciprocate Indians' attitudes to them. That is, they don't fear Indian competition. In fact, they don't much think about India at all, compared to the time that India spends agonizing over the Chinese threat. To the extent that they do think about India, my research in China suggests that they are focused on movies, software, and Buddhism, in a constructive way, not on cross-border hostilities.

When the Chinese do see things they would like to learn from, most notably in recent years in software, they are quick to send delegation after delegation to Nasscom's doors to figure it out. India doesn't reciprocate with quite the same alacrity, and that is India's (unnecessary) loss.
So, why spend time putting up procedural roadblocks for the likes of Chinese telecom products maker Huawei Technologies, and why not facilitate Chinese entry into India? It will be a worthy complement to continued dialogue regarding the border disputes.

About the author:
Tarun Khanna is the Jorge Paulo Lemann Professor of Business Administration at Harvard Business School.
~From Harvard Business School~

Unilever: Transformation and Tradition

Research And Ideas

Published: November 28, 2005
Author: Geoffrey Jones

By: Agustinus Gius Gala

Executive Summary:

In a new book, professor Geoffrey Jones looks at Unilever's decades-old transformation from fragmented underperformer to focused consumer products giant. This epilogue summarizes the years 1960 to 1990.
Currently a Unilever brand can be found in one out of every two households in the world. This book has related how these brands came to form part of the everyday life of so many people as the world "globalized" from the 1960s. It has shown how Becel originated, how Impulse began life in South Africa and spread worldwide, how Lipton tea became the world's biggest tea brand, the origins of the sensual Magnum ice cream, and how Pond's Cream became a Unilever brand.
The story behind the brands has been presented also. Dove and Sunsilk, Omo and Surf, Rama and Flora were great consumer products, but they became worldwide brands because of the capabilities of Unilever. Their success rested on the choices made on strategy and organization, on the recruitment and development of managers, on the allocation of spending between capital investment, acquisitions, and innovation, and on the negotiation of safe paths through the complexities of official regulations and government. The easiest way to understand the Unilever organization, observed an article in the U.S. business magazine Fortune in 1947, was "to think of it as the world's most difficult corporate-management job."1

It was remarkable that the corporate image of a company whose brands were so well known, and whose operations were so widespread, was so indistinct. There were times between the 1960s and 1990 when Unilever appeared amorphous. It was not merely that the corporate name was not found on any brands or local companies. It was also the sheer spread of businesses it owned beyond packaged consumer products, including African trading, plantations, specialty chemicals, paper and packaging, transport, advertising, and market research companies. It was not surprising that the financial markets had problems valuing the business, which seemed at times to resemble more of a holding company or conglomerate than anything else, nor that most consumers barely knew that Unilever as such existed.

There was, in fact, coherence to Unilever that rested on at least five corporate strengths. Unilever possessed, first, strong capabilities in branding and marketing. It understood local markets, and it knew how to market to them. It was at the frontier of market segmentation strategies in packaged consumer products. It opened up new product categories in deodorants and household cleaners. Unilever's brands were not strong enough to prevent the growth of private labels in Europe, but they were sufficient to maintain Unilever's strong position in higher margin products. It was able to leverage knowledge of brands and products between countries throughout the world, matching them to income levels and changing aspirations.

Secondly, Unilever developed strengths in the acquisition of other firms, and their subsequent "Unileverization." After the failed merger attempts of the late 1960s, Unilever professionalized its capabilities in this respect. It was conservative, missing opportunities as a result, but also avoiding disasters. The ice cream and other foods businesses were built patiently by the acquisition of one local firm after another, and their melding into the Unilever model. Following the National Starch acquisition, larger targets were pursued.
The acquisition of Brooke Bond demonstrated that Unilever could make a hostile acquisition, while the acquisition of Chesebrough-Pond's two years later showed that Unilever could move quickly and decisively if it wished. Effective procedures were put in place to absorb acquired firms, which were flexible enough to take into account individual circumstances. From the 1980s Unilever also honed skills in divesting businesses. Unilever's ability to identify acquisition targets, and to absorb the capabilities of acquired companies, became one of its principal competitive advantages.

Unilever's research base was a third strength and source of coherence. The research laboratories in Britain, the Netherlands, the United States, and India were major sources of innovation. From gum health toothpaste to household cleaners, and from insect pollination of oil palms cloning to pregnancy tests, Unilever researchers were responsible for major innovations. The science base was high quality and deep. Research on animal feeds could lead over time into a successful pregnancy test. Unilever's knowledge about edible fats and detergents was second to none in the world. This research base not only provided the foundation for the development of new products, but was also indispensable for the constant upgrading and renewal of brands. Unilever's main problem was the time it took to turn scientific knowledge into successful branded products.

"It entered the 1960s with an organization that was so decentralized as to be fragmented."

Fourthly, although a low-profile corporation, Unilever was embedded in business systems and official decision-making worldwide. This was derived from the company's long-established position as a large firm in many countries, from its role as a manufacturer of everyday products for eating and cleaning, and from its employment of nationals at senior levels. The upshot, seen in the case of the EU, was that Unilever had a "voice" in issues that concerned it, even if it was exercised discreetly through industry and other associations. In emerging markets too, Unilever was able to some extent to influence how policies were interpreted, in part because of the respect in which the company was held. The corporate reputation for integrity and competence was a major competitive advantage in this respect. A part of the reason why Unilever seemed less confident in the United States before the 1980s was that it lacked familiarity and networks within that country.

Finally, and most important, Unilever had distinctive strengths in management. Unilever invested heavily in its management. It recruited some of the best available graduates in each generation, not only from its home economies, but in many other countries also. Its early "localization" policies opened up the most senior positions within operating companies to nationals, enabling Unilever to tap high-quality staff all over the world. Unilever managers were given extensive training, and their career development was watched over carefully. A strong corporate culture, which coexisted with numerous subcultures, helped turn Unilever's management into the central binding force of the company, preventing it from becoming a "conglomerate" even at its most diversified. There were few "weird" people in the higher ranks of Unilever, yet compared to most companies, Unilever was distinguished worldwide by competent and professional management.

The challenge was to translate these strengths into a competitive performance that matched its peers, and delivered appropriate levels of return to shareholders. Unilever's historical legacy provided organizational and cultural constraints on the options available. It entered the 1960s with an organization that was so decentralized as to be fragmented. The British and Dutch components coexisted only loosely with one another. There was limited central direction, resulting in an excessive number of brands and factories organized nationally in a Europe undergoing economic integration, and a virtually autonomous business in the United States. There were barriers to flows of knowledge, especially across the Atlantic, but even between European countries. Unilever managers determined to see the differences between markets, when competitors saw the similarities.
It was regarded as legitimate for all components of Unilever to pursue diversification opportunities with limited consideration for overall corporate priorities or capabilities. Research projects were pursued with little dialogue with the marketing function. Although Unilever had a strongly networked senior management, the tradition of decentralized authority created in some respects one of the world's least cohesive large businesses, and one in which establishing priorities in the allocation of resources was difficult.

There was also the past legacy of vertical and horizontal integration, which left Unilever owning considerable parts of the value chain. Its trawlers caught the fish that was eventually sold in its restaurant chains. Thousands of people were engaged to slaughter the animals some of whose parts ended up in Unilever's pies and sausages. Unilever made its own packaging, and transported its products on its own trucks and barges. It owned the distribution chain that delivered its frozen products to retailers. It ran its own advertising agency and market research company. These businesses were the product of past rational calculations, and some remained profitable and successful operations, but by the 1970s times had changed. Unilever found itself burdened, especially in Europe, with a high cost structure, and the task of managing businesses far removed from the manufacturing and branding of packaged consumer goods.

Much of Unilever's history from the 1960s revolved around the tension between retaining the benefits of local market knowledge and decision making, and containing the disadvantages of excessive decentralization and fragmentation. It proved difficult to change ingrained routines and practices. Shared values and strong networks kept Unilever together, but the need for agreement and discussion before taking action meant that it was hard to move quickly on major issues. It took twenty years to implement coordination in Europe. It took longer to rationalize production and brands on a Europe-wide basis. Unilever's "hands-off" approach to the U.S. affiliates persisted even after the decline of the detergents and margarine businesses, and the failure to grow an ice cream business, became widely discussed public knowledge. Decades of efforts went into turning scientific research into marketable products.

The managerial costs of too much decentralization, and diversification into businesses as diverse as ferries and floor coverings, became evident as the oil crisis in 1973 transformed Unilever's home market in Europe from a fast-growing "miracle" economy into one afflicted by recession and inflation. Unilever found itself burdened by low-margin businesses. The growing strength of European retailers and private labels undermined the profitability of branded food products. International competitors eroded Unilever's market positions in detergents. The attempts to find more profitable growth opportunities through innovation, in products as diverse as fresh dairy and feminine hygiene, largely came to naught, as did attempts to buy into the fast-growing personal care business.

By the mid-1970s Unilever's sales and profits performance were flat, and it was underperforming its major competitors. Unilever was sustained by strong positions in the detergents and personal care markets of Asia, Latin America, and Africa. The advantages of decentralization were especially seen in these overseas markets. Unilever proved flexible enough to retain them, fostered by its belief that ultimately consumers worldwide would want its products. Moreover the oil price rises resulted in an extraordinary growth of profitability of the UAC [United Africa Company] stemming from the booming economies of Nigeria and the Arab Gulf.

The Special Committee of each generation sought to minimize the gap between capabilities and performance. However, no Special Committee began with a clean sheet of paper. Indeed, they inherited such a formidable package of organizational and cultural norms, and of asset distribution, that their options for radical change appeared highly constrained.
During the years of Cole and Tempel, the key to improving performance was believed to lie in diversification. The Unilever "fleet" sailed in a variety of directions, motivated by the underlying belief that edible fats and detergents did not provide sufficient future growth prospects. The decisions to pursue the "third leg" in foods, to build a worldwide ice cream business, and to segment the margarine market proved critical to Unilever's future. Cole was inclined to believe that Unilever could make a success of any business that it wished.
This proved to be an illusion, but it was one widely shared within the business world at the time. Diversification was the fashion of the moment, which managers were constantly under pressure to follow from consultants and opinion makers in the financial press and business schools. It was only later that the managerial diseconomies of widely diversified businesses became evident.
Hartog and Woodroofe were organizational modernizers who addressed the consequences of diversification. They drove through the concept of executive coordinations against internal opposition, and encouraged a more systematic approach to cash management, acquisitions, and research strategy. Woodroofe had a remarkable perception, decades before it became the subject of numerous management books, that the basis of Unilever's unique competitive advantage lay in its knowledge base. These years saw a major search for the organizational forms that would enable this knowledge to be exploited fully.

Among the principal achievements of Klijnstra, Orr, and Van den Hoven was the correction of the Anglo-Dutch imbalance within Unilever. The British preeminence within the Special Committee and the Board was anachronistic, and contributed to the fragmentation of Unilever's post-war organization between Britain and the Continent. By securing that Board, and ultimately Special Committee, meetings were held in both Rotterdam and London, Unilever began to become a more balanced Anglo-Dutch enterprise which, in turn, could start to reach out towards other nationalities. During these years also Unilever's strategic thinking became more focused, with an emphasis on reconfiguring the geographical basis of its business. This was not, as yet, matched by a dear product strategy. The UAC was permitted to seek diversification opportunities beyond West Africa by buying all manner of businesses in Europe.
"There had been major progress at cutting costs, but less in creating an atmosphere for more dynamic risk-taking."

Van den Hoven and Orr ultimately took the decision to reassert Unilever's authority over its businesses in the United States. Unilever's weak performance in the United States market was an unsustainable position for a firm that aspired to be a global consumer goods player. The acquisition of National Starch demonstrated to its own management, as much as to outsiders, that Unilever was sufficiently self-assured to acquire a large firm in the world's largest market. However, it did not solve the issue of Lever's underperformance, nor did the guarantee of autonomy to National Starch's management help the case of those seeking greater influence in the affairs of Lever and Lipton. The real turning point for the American business came with the subsequent appointment of Angus as director responsible for North America, and the radical moves to integrate the U.S. subsidiaries in Unilever in strategic and operational matters, and to rebuild the detergents and margarine business.
In Europe, Unilever's organizational legacy, as well as social legislation in most of Europe, imposed constraints on what could be achieved in the rationalization of production facilities and brands. In some respects the most notable achievement of the 1970s was to retain Unilever's business in emerging markets, despite the growing political risks and low remittances from major markets such as India.

The Special Committee of Durham, Maljers, and Angus launched a major corporate turnaround. This was a visible demonstration of the impact strong leadership could have on a firm's performance, although the circumstances were also propitious for radical change at Unilever. In the wake of a second major European recession, and with the collapse of UAC's profitability in Nigeria, Unilever could not carry on as before. Nor could Unilever's underperformance compared to its major competitors be hidden any longer from institutional investors. The strategy confirmed at the Marlow meeting in the spring of 1984 amounted, in Unilever terms, to a revolution, which over the following six years narrowed the gap between Unilever's cap-abilities and its performance.

The key achievement was the identification of Unilever as being in the fast-moving consumer goods business. By 1990 Unilever no longer fitted Cole's description of thirty years previously of being "several different fleets . . . doing all kinds of different things, all over the place." Major achievements included the disposal of a swathe of low-margin businesses and major acquisitions. The acquisition of Chesebrough-Pond's enabled Unilever to become a world leader in personal care just as the industry was globalizing and consolidating, as well as contributing substantially to the further renewal of Unilever's business in the United States. There was also a culture change as Unilever shifted from a company that tolerated underperformance to one that did not. The implementation of this culture change and of the core business strategy was no easy matter. Entire management groups were sold, and managers unaccustomed to radical change had to be convinced to accept the new strategic approach. By 1990 Unilever may have retained characteristics of a "club," but being a Unilever manager could not be fairly characterized as a "gentlemanly occupation."

The Special Committee system itself had both advantages and disadvantages. It was the antithesis of the charismatic chief executive increasingly favored by large corporations.2 It hardly contributed to a dynamic corporate image that Unilever was led by a Special Committee, and it did little to foster an entrepreneurial culture within the business. On the other hand, the system guarded against risky strategic moves, albeit not completely, as Cole's failed attempts to acquire Allied Breweries demonstrated. At its best, the Special Committee provided a mechanism for major decisions to be reached in a balanced fashion, as well as providing a basis for the British and Dutch components of Unilever to coexist with one another. Undoubtedly some Special Committees worked better than others, depending on the relationships between the individuals involved. The arrangement worked best when the two chairmen worked well together, and it was less effective when their relationship was more distant. The large and executive Board provided little check on the actions of the Special Committee.
Directors executed policy rather than making it. The absence of non-executive directors, before the role of Advisory Directors was greatly strengthened in the 1990s, compounded the problem of a governance structure which provided no outside perspectives or checks on decision making.
By 1990 Unilever was no longer an underperforming firm. Its share price still seemed low compared to its competitors, but it was not a realistic takeover target. It was also evident that the legacy of the past had not suddenly disappeared either. There were still too many brands. Innovation was still too slow. There had been major progress at cutting costs, but less in creating an atmosphere for more dynamic risk-taking. Unilever was still edging towards a thorough rationalization of its European business. The foods business was still heavily reliant on edible fats and ice cream in Europe. There was still work to be done to extract value from Unilever's capabilities.

Footnotes:
1. "Unilever: The Heritage," Fortune, December 1947.
2. Rakesh Khurana, Searching for a Corporate Saviour (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2002.)

About the author Geoffrey Jones is a professor at Harvard Business School.

Excerpted with permission from Renewing Unilever: Transformation and Tradition, by Geoffrey Jones, Oxford University Press. Copyright Oxford University Press, 2005. All Rights Reserved.
~From Harvard Business School~

The Green Revolution?

Market Directions

Joseph Trevisani
Chief Market Analyst
By: Agustinus Gius Gala

Several confidence measures in the United States have returned to the levels they held before the great financial collapse last fall. Do they presage an impending economic recovery?US Consumer Confidence readings from the Conference Board and University of Michigan have pulled out of their deep post September troughs. The same is true for the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing and services surveys. But these forward looking sentiment statistics contrast markedly with measures that gauge actual economic commitments. The performance of the consumer and manager is much at odds with what they say is their economic view. The return of these sentiment indicators nearly to pre-collapse levels combined with the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus packaged enacted in the industrialized countries has convinced many equity traders and commentators that the recession has or will shortly ebb and growth is soon to revive.
The problem with this scenario is that there are no substantive indicators that agree with the diagnosis.In August of last year the University of Michigan overall consumer confidence number registered 63, in September the month of the Lehman bankruptcy, it was 70.3. These reading were down from occasions in the low 90s in the early part of 2007. In May of this year confidence had recovered to 68.1 from the mid-50s post collapse; this is the highest indication after September. The 'expectations' section of the survey experienced a similar rebirth. From 67.2 in September 2008 it fell to a low of just over 50 in February before recovering to 69.4 in the month just past. The 'current conditions' reading also improved but less than the others. It was 71 in August 2008, 75 in September, suffered a low in November of 57.5 and recovered to 68.3 in April of this year followed by a drop to 67.7 in May.
Readings from the Conference Board show a similar progression. The overall number was 58.5 last August, 61.4 in September and 54.9 last month. The ‘expectations’ component was 54.1 last August, 61.5 in September, 51 in April 2009 and 72.3 in May. And as with the Michigan survey, ‘current conditions’ was the most problematic. It was 65 in August of last year, 61.1 in September, reached a low of just below 22 in March of this year and by May had regained only 28.5.The pattern is fairly uniform. A reviving ‘expectations’ component pulls the overall reading higher, while the 'current conditions' component is weak, or as in the Conference survey, barely in recovery at all. The ISM results are similar. The manufacturing survey registered 49.9 in August 2008, 43.4 in September and by May had recovered to 42.8 from the mid 30s in February and March. 'New orders' were the most buoyant scoring a mildly expansionary 51.1 in May, above the 48.2 reading of last August and the sub 30 low of last November.
The non-manufacturing survey composite was 50.4 in the month before the crash, 50 in September, reached a low of 37.4 last November and had regained 44.0 last month. 'New orders' were 49.5 in August, 50.6 in September, dropped to a bottom on 35.6 in November and had bounced to a still contracting level of 44.4 in May. But these sentiment numbers have not translated into consumer spending or industrial activity. It is as if everyone is saying. Yes, things are better, but I am not spending, I am saving more and I am worried about my job. But if you are asking, yes the overall economy has improved since last fall.Consumer credit, personal expenditures, industrial production, and capital utilization remain firmly in recessionary territory.Consumer deleveraging continues apace. Last September American consumers added $6.98 billion in debt to their portfolios. The three month moving average for consumer credit was $3.436 billion in August 2008 and $2.886 in September.
In April of this year consumer credit contracted $15.7 billion; in March Americans subtracted $16.5 billion from their debt. The three month moving averages for these months were -$14.366 billon and -$7.533 billon respectively. Personal expenditures have declined in six of the past eight months from last September. The only positive months were January and February of this year, when spending was prompted by retailers’ heavy post holiday discounts. In the eight months before September 2008 the ratio was exactly the opposite, six positive months and two, July and August were negative. The productive economy is even more depressed than the consumer. Industrial production has been positive in only one month since the beginning of last year, October 2008. Capacity utilization in April was 69.1%, and has dropped even month since December 2007.And consumers now have a new worry; US Federal deficits have the potential to create an interest rate drag on future economic growth.
Government bond prices have fallen substantially since March putting upward pressure on interest rates in the economy. On Friday the 10 year Treasury closed at 3.83% up more than 1.6% since March. 30 year mortgage rates near 5.4% are almost 0.5% higher than one month ago. Concomitantly the vast Federal funding needs have begun to damage the dollar. The lower the dollar goes the higher reach commodity prices fueling inflation. A sinking dollar driving up crude oil prices belongs to the scenario that gave consumers $4 a gallon gasoline last summer. The Fed will be very hard pressed to keep rates low enough to benefit consumer spending, facilitate government debt sales and restrain fears of future inflation. Considering the chasm that the world economy has fallen into since last fall, some recovery in sentiment was inevitable. Catastrophe averted is better than catastrophe endured but to borrow a phrase from Churchill, 'We must be very careful not to assign to this deliverance the attributes of a victory. Wars are not won by evacuations'. I suspect that the relief that the world did not end last fall and spring is coloring the expectations of consumers and managers alike.
Outlooks are much better; indeed it would be hard to be much worse than the media coverage of the economy last fall. But relief is not migrating from the mind to the pocketbook. More improvement will have to happen, particularly in the job outlook, before the consumers again take up their burdens.
~From FX Solutions, LLC~

The Psychological Utility of Technical Analysis

Market Directions

Joseph Trevisani
Chief Market Analyst

By: Agustinus Gius Gala

The Psychological Utility of Technical Analysis
Today I am starting an occasional series on one of the most fascinating and essential topics in currency trading; the interaction between the psychology of the market and the decisions of the individual trader. I hope these observations are useful; reader comments are welcome.
The Psychological Utility of Technical Analysis
Technical analysis is sometimes studied as if it contains a grain of secret knowledge or portrays an intrinsic truth about currency movements. Often it is said that a specific chart formation will produce a specific price movement.Technical analysis does nothing of the sort. A chart is a reflection of past prices, nothing more. In itself a graph cannot predict future price movements. A currency does not trade up of down because of a formation on a chart. It moves because market participants make basic assumptions about future price behavior based on the record of past price action.
A charted history of price action is the cumulative story of thousands of trading decisions; it is a record of the past behavior of thousands of individual traders. Price information is meaningful only because trader’s decisions give it predictive power. A simple proof of the limited forward intelligence of historical price action is the well attested notion that fundamental developments always trump technical analysis. If the Federal Reserve raises rates unexpectedly or the Chinese Government announces it will no longer buy US Treasuries there is no chart formation that has ever existed that will prevent the dollar from rocketing up in the first instance or plummeting in the second. Technical analysis does not produce price movement.
I state the obvious because in the endless attribution of trading cause and effect to ‘the market’ it is easy to lose sight of the actual composition of the market--thousands of individual decision makers. The translation mechanism for technical analysis runs from the information contained in a chart, through the assessment of that information by market participants to the trading behavior of those market participants. Another way to approach this idea is to ask, just who is the ‘market’ and what is it trying to accomplish every day. It is likely that over 90% of the $3.2 trillion daily volume in the FX market is speculative.
That means that everyone in the market from the hedge fund trader with $1 billion under management, to the euro trader on the Deutsche Bank interbank desk to the retail trader in her study, is trying to do exactly the same thing, take home daily trading profits. Interestingly, the overall worldwide foreign exchange trading volume in 2007, the year of the last survey, increased almost 50% from the prior survey in 2004 of $1.9 trillion daily. The counterparty reporting segment to which retail foreign exchange belongs boosted its share of turnover to 40% from 33% according to Bank for International Settlements in Basel (BIS, 2007) which conducts the tri-annual survey.To return to my previous point, if every market participant is attempting to do the same thing, namely wring trading profits from the day’s activities, how do they all go about it? The first thing every trader does, in New York, Tokyo, London and in every land in between is to pull up charts and look for trading opportunities.
Every trader looking for profit is judging the same charts. Everyone sees the same price history, and everyone identifies the same potentially profitable chart formations. And, in the absence of other factors, the majority of traders will come to the same trading conclusion based on the observed chart formations. If euro has been in an up channel for two weeks and is approaching the bottom of the channel most traders looking for an opportunity in euro will bet on the continuance of the up trend and the maintenance of the channel. They will place buy orders just above the floor of the channel. And much of the time the charts will have been proven correct, the euro will indeed bounce from the floor of the channel. But it bounces not because, for instance, the ECB is expected to raise rates at some future date, but because of the fit between the goals, information and assumptions of the market’s traders.
Traders need profits, all charts contain the same information and all traders operate with similar assumptions about market behavior based on chart formations. If enough traders place their buy orders above the bottom of the channel it becomes likely that the euro will bounce off the floor of the channel and continue the upward channel formation, barring external events of course. There is powerful self-fulfilling logic in technical analysis, it works, because everyone trading believes it will work and makes their trading decisions accordingly. For a retail trader this knowledge is the most accessible and effective trading strategy that exists.
~From FX Solutions, LLC~

Tuesday, 30 June 2009

Netsuite, Krisis Malah Untung














Professional Services Director Asia Pacific Netsuite,
Dean Stockwell.

By: Agustinus Gius Gala


Krisis ekonomi global membuat kelimpungan perusahaan-perusahaan di seluruh dunia, tetapi tidak bagi Netsuite. Krisis yang berawal dari Amerika Serikat ini justru mendatangkan keuntungan bagi perusahaan yang bergerak di software as a service (SaaP) ini.
"It's good for us," ujar Professional Services Director Asia Pacific Netsuite, Dean Stockwell, saat Kompas.com berkunjung ke Kantor Regional Asia Pacific Netsuite di Singapura beberapa waktu lalu. Diungkapkannya, situasi sekarang ini memang tidak bisa dikatakan baik bagi setiap perusahaan. Diakui Stockwell, akibat krisis ini membuat beberapa perusahaan mungkin tidak akan menjadi kliennya di tahun depan, tetapi ia optimistis perusahaan yang lebih besar justru akan menjadi klien perusahaan yang mempunyai inisial "N" di bursa saham Wall Street ini.
"Keadaan ekonomi mungkin membuat small company tersisih sehingga mungkin tidak menjadi klien kami lagi tahun depan, tapi sebagai gantinya bigger company melirik kami sebagai alternatif. Itu sangat bagus bagi bisnis kami," paparnya.

Hal serupa disampaikan Corporat Account Managet Netsuit Rick Lanman. Dikatakannya, iklim ekonomi sekarang ini merupakan kesempatan bagi perusahaan yang berdiri sejak tahun 1998 ini. Menurutnya, perusahaan yang menggunakan jasa Netsuite bisa menghemat pengeluarannya hingga 40 persen. "Perusahaan-perusahaan tentu mencari cara bijak untuk menghemat uang, Netsuite mempunyai solusinya," klaimnya. "Jadi, iklim ekonomi memang sukar bagi konsumen, tapi dari perspektif kami justru menguntungkan," ujarnya sambil tertawa.
Ia memaparkan bukti dari "kebaikan" kondisi ekonomi sekarang ini untuk Netsuite. Pada kuartal empat 2008, Netsuite membukukan keuntungan sebagai perusahaan publik yang tercatat di New York Stock Exchange. "Pada kuartal pertama 2009 juga demikian. Laba kami meningkat secara signifikan sebanyak 52 persen dibanding tahun lalu," ujarnya.
Perusahaan yang saat ini mempunyai 8 cabang di seluruh dunia ini pada tahun 2008 mencatat pendapatan 152,476 juta dollar AS, jauh lebih banyak dibandingkan tahun 2007 yang mencapai 108,541 juta dollar AS.

Saat ini, Netsuite sedang menggarap pasar Asia Pasifik, termasuk Indonesia, yang dinilainya merupakan pasar potensial bagi perusahaan yang saat ini mempunyai 6.600 lebih klien di seluruh dunia. "Asia Pasifik menyumbang pertumbuhan double digit," ungkap Stockwell.
Netsuite, menurut Channel Manager Asia Joni Wong Angkasa, membangun sebuah aplikasi industri dan bisnis dengan berbasis online yang mendukung seluruh kebutuhan perusahaan, dari Manajemen Hubungan Pelanggan (CRM), Perencanaan Sumber Daya Perusahaan (ERP), hingga ke Situs Jualan. Ia mengklaim sebagai yang pertama dan satu-satunya aplikasi berbasis web yang menawarkan semuanya dalam satu sistem terpadu dan merupakan solusi yang andal. Selain itu, Netsuite dapat digunakan untuk membuat pihak manajemen mengambil keputusan lebih baik dan lebih cepat dengan dukungan data yang real-time.

"Yang artinya, para penjual atau sales dapat melihat catatan data lengkap pelanggan, termasuk dukungan kasus, masalah penagihan, dan banyak lagi. Gudang manajer dapat segera melihat pesanan penjualan yang telah disetujui pada panel kontrol, staf administrasi keuangan dapat melihat data sejarah pembayaran ketika menelepon pelanggan untuk mengumpulkan pembayaran," pungkasnya.

~From Kompas.com~